If an AI winter happens before 2030, what is the most likely reason for it? | Manifold

If an AI winter happens before 2030, what is the most likely reason for it?

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2031

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1W

1M

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25%

Lawsuits & civil disputes

21%

Legislation/treaties

3%

Economic crash

12%

War

0.2%

Sabotage

39%

Natural limits / diminishing returns

0.2%

Something else

Multiple choice. Assuming an AI winter happens before resolution, which of these scenarios is most likely to bring it about?

Resolves N/A if an AI winter doesn't happen.

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Model size doubles every three months.

Compute cost halves every 18 months.

Arguably there is nothing new in GPT-3/4 that wasn’t known in 2017. It’s all dividends from scaling.

Possible to see an “AI fall” as video or motion control are just very expensive.

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