For this market to resolve "YES":
We need three major polls with a >50% "yes" response to some variant of the question "Do you feel AI is a threat to the human race" (not just to jobs).
We need to see at least one such poll in three different OECD countries, and one of those has to be the United States.
If we don't see three such polls before 2030, this market resolves NO.
1,000
1.00https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_021523.pdf/
A majority (55%) of Americans are now worried at least somewhat that artificially intelligent machines could one day pose a risk to the human race’s existence.
@MartinRandall question something like "is it likely humans will be killed by AI by 2030 or so" instead of "do you understand that ai could kill some people"
@MarkIngraham I think something can be considered "a threat" even if not considered "likely". Eg nuclear weapons.
@MartinRandall If the poll says “IS a threat” it will count, but “could be a threat one day” is different. Need a poll where people think it’s currently a threat.