How does this resolve if it's found to be a small fraction of what's otherwise multifactorial causation?

The problem is the sort of studies that would point to this unambiguously (RCT under metabolic ward conditions) are no longer performed, and nutrition research is mostly a monument of rubbish as a result. For example, you can still find papers trying to decide at what point between eating 1 egg per day and 2 eggs per day would cause someone to drop dead--all based on p-hacking and dietary recall questionnaires! My personal suspicion is that obesogens are 30% likely to play an important role, so assuming a 1/3 chance over 10 years that the epistemological situation in this scientific community improves sufficiently, that would yield a 10% chance.

I don't trust this random AI app further than I can throw it, but just asking it for fun and it says the results are mixed:

https://consensus.app/results/?q=Is%20the%20chemical%20obesogen%20hypothesis%20true%3F&meter=on

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by VivaLaPanda

@UrbanLandRent https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-the-contaminant-hypothesis-of-f27836a908da?referrer=VivaLaPanda

He may not be so good at effective altruism, but prison does wonders for effective physiognomy

Plastic + soy + low-quality food