Will a territory with over 10 million people cease to be part of Russia by 2025? | Manifold

Will a territory with over 10 million people cease to be part of Russia by 2025?

Mini

9

Ṁ397

Jan 1

2%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Some have suggested that the current sanctions and general effects of the Russo-Ukraine war may lead to the break apart of the Russian Federation. (For example: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507820717127000064) This question resolves yes if a territory containing 10 million or more people, currently recognized by the United States as being part of the Russian Federation, ceases to be recognized by the United States as part of the Russian Federation. Otherwise, it resolves no on January 1st, 2025. Note that the United States does not currently recognize Crimea as part of Russia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Crimea#Pro-Ukrainian_stances_on_Crimea It's also worth nothing that the population of Russia is currently ~146 mllion (https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/russia-population/), and no single Russian republic contains >5m people: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republics_of_Russia See also the same question, but for territories with >1m people instead: https://manifold.markets/LawrenceChan/will-a-territory-with-over-1-millio As suggested by Zvi in: https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2022/03/28/ukraine-post-7-prediction-market-update/

Get

1,000

and

1.00

Sort by:

Ponzi anyone? (boring NO bets take 3 years to pay off)

Related questions

Will a territory with over 1 million people cease to be part of Russia by 2025?

Will any part of pre-2014 Russia territory become an internationally recognized independent state by the end of 2040?

Will the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030

Will more than 1000 people die in an internal conflict in Russia by 2025?

Will Russia lose control of at least as much territory inside Russia as it did to Wagner by the end of 2030?

Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2030?

Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2025?

By 2050, will any territory that was administered by Russia in 2013 be administered by China instead?

Will Russia be broken up by the end of 2024?

[Metaculus] Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

Related questions

Will a territory with over 1 million people cease to be part of Russia by 2025?

Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2030?

Will any part of pre-2014 Russia territory become an internationally recognized independent state by the end of 2040?

Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2025?

Will the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030

By 2050, will any territory that was administered by Russia in 2013 be administered by China instead?

Will more than 1000 people die in an internal conflict in Russia by 2025?

Will Russia be broken up by the end of 2024?

Will Russia lose control of at least as much territory inside Russia as it did to Wagner by the end of 2030?

[Metaculus] Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

Terms & Conditions•Privacy Policy•Sweepstakes Rules