In 2030, what will consensus say is the primary cause of the increase in autoimmune disorders over the past few decades? | Manifold

In 2030, what will consensus say is the primary cause of the increase in autoimmune disorders over the past few decades?

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still no consensus

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there wasn't an increase after all

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Covid-19

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obesity and or diet

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In the UK:

"The database study of more than 22 million individuals found a 22% increase in new diagnoses over the 19-year study."

https://www.medicalrepublic.com.au/autoimmune-diseases-are-on-the-rise/91734

Autoimmune diseases are on the rise • The Medical Republic

News and analysis for Australian GPs

A similar study by Tesch et. al.3, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, evaluated a cohort of 640,701 vaccination-naive individuals with PCR-confirmed COVID-19 during 2020 for the risk of autoimmune conditions. The researchers identified a 42.6% higher likelihood of acquiring an autoimmune condition 3–15 months after infection compared with a non-COVID-19 cohort of 1,560,357 individuals matched for age, sex and whether they had a preexisting autoimmune disease3

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41584-023-00964-y

@Daniel_MC I'm thinking of the longer-term rise, which seems to have begun well before Covid

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