Tumblr recently indicated they will be implementing ActivityPub support. It is unclear what timeline or subset of features
Therefore this is part of a series of markets
This market resolves instantly to YES if I am able to, without going through a 3rd party bridge, follow a Tumblr account from my Mastodon account. It otherwise resolves NO at close
1,000
1.00One way this could go is that Tumblr adds support, but many Mastodon instances fairly quickly block it due to Tumblr users, as a very big culturally different community, proving disruptive to their community when joined.
My model is that this still resolves YES, because it's specified as instantly resolving to YES if a follow is possible, and it's likely there will be some window during which that was the case even if by closing date it is no longer possible, and maybe also because it'd be possible if you were running your own Mastodon instance to do so, it's just (some) existing instances which blocked Tumblr, but it's worth checking that.
@jbeshir Also, while tech.lgbt is pretty good about blocking instances, they aren't nearly as strict as, say, mastodon.art, which I could totally see blocking Tumblr.
Conditional on the ads market resolving YES, I would imagine most instances would block
