Will a new zoonotic pathogen spillover in 2024
Will a new zoonotic pathogen spillover in 2024
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Will the spillover event of a zoonotic disease into humans occur in 2024. This disease can have been previously recorded in the animal population but not in humans.
This will resolve yes if such a spillover event happens in 2024 and no if it doesn't. To resolve yes it does not matter if the pathogen is human to human transmittable only that it is animal to human transmittable. The number of human infections greater than 1 is also not relevant. If such a spillover happens before 2024 then that is not included.
The question closes May 31 2025 to allow time for the reporting of an event near the end of 2024.
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There has been a report of a 'mouse fever' affecting Russian soldiers. https://youtu.be/WF6mr0F8xUM?si=Mvsu3gJvL2BtUtlJ if this is a new spillover event it would still not count as it has happened before 2024.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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