Only counts if the card is banned after release, not at or before release. In the case of reprints, it only counts if the card was added to the format via MH3. For example, if Orim's Chant is banned in Modern and Legacy (and nothing else is) this market resolves Yes for Modern and No for Legacy. The banlist update must go into effect during 2024 to count, a change announced in 2024 but implemented in 2025 is not enough.
Clarification Aug 9: For the digital format Historic, where cards are frequently rebalanced rather than banned outright, this market only concerns itself with bans. A 'suspension' is for all intents and purposes a ban.
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1.00@MartyDettmann Guide of Souls, Ocelot Pride, and Galvanic Discharge were nerfed in Historic, which is the typical rebalancing remedy for the format. Resolve?
I should have perhaps put this in the description explicitly but for the purposes of this market only bans count. These days they mostly rebalance cards but Historic does in fact have a ban list and cards are still being added to it, although from MH3 it's been only the pre-bans so far, which I excluded specifically because at least the pitch elemental ban was obviously coming.