Resolution Criteria:
The market will resolve as "Yes" if:
Gwern publishes a standalone book available in print form before December 31, 2026
The book is authored solely by Gwern and is not part of a collection including works from multiple authors
The market will resolve as "No" if:
Gwern does not publish a standalone book in print form by December 31, 2026
Any published work is part of a collection with multiple authors
For the purpose of this market:
A "standalone book" is defined as a written work authored solely by Gwern, not part of an anthology or collection with other authors
The book must be available for purchase in physical print format
Resolution Sources:
Official announcements from Gwern or his representatives
Listings on major book retailers (e.g., Amazon, Barnes & Noble) confirming print availability
Reputable news articles or reviews confirming the publication
Closing Date:
This market will close for trading on December 31, 2026, or when a qualifying book by Gwern is officially published and available in print form, whichever comes first.Additional Notes:
The resolution does not depend on the book's content or subject matter
Digital-only publications do not qualify for a "Yes" resolution
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1.00What happens if someone creates an EPUB and uploads it to a print-on-demand service like Lulu and I start telling people, "well, if you really want a book version of gwern.net, X exists and you can go buy it there"?
@gwernbranwen that someone might eventually be me ;)
I was the one who asked you at the SF meetup about this, and mentioned the lesswrong anthology, and asked you to sign my printed version of your "Subculture Society" essay.
How would you feel about someone making such a thing? What if they just gave you all the profits from it? I really want it on my bookshelf lol.
Oh and to answer your question, i'm not sure how that would resolve this market, but I think I would give it a "No" in that case, if you weren't actively involved in the making of it. Hard to say how active you'd have to be to resolve it as "Yes". Maybe if you wrote a forward for it that'd be the minimum needed to resolve "Yes".
@MattF I would be fine with it as long as it wasn't embarrassing, even by proxy. To do a good job is a lot of work, and doing things is rare.