As of 2023, global conflict hotspots include areas such as Taiwan due to China's aggression, Ukraine due to escalating conflict, Russia due to growing civil unrest, and regions involving North Korea, Israel, and Iran due to their respective nuclear programs. Additionally, migration surges to the U.S. from Central America and Mexico due to increased violence and acute weather events have heightened tensions. The potential for these conflicts to escalate into war with substantial casualties is a pressing concern for global security​.

Before January 1st, 2030, will a war occur anywhere in the world that results in the death of over one million people?

Resolution Criteria:

This question will resolve positively if, before January 1st, 2030, credible sources confirm that a war has occurred in any region of the world resulting in the death of over one million people within one year. This includes both direct deaths (e.g., combatants and non-combatants killed in the course of the war) and indirect deaths (e.g., fatalities due to war-related famine, disease, or other conditions).

Credible sources can include, but are not limited to, international organizations such as the United Nations, World Health Organization, International Red Cross, or reputable media outlets. Reports from these sources must provide a reasonable estimate of the number of deaths, substantiating that the count has exceeded one million.

If no such war has occurred by January 1st, 2030, or if a war has occurred but the death toll is confirmed to be less than one million, the question will resolve negatively.

In case of conflicting reports, the median of the most reliable estimates will be used. The question will resolve as N/A if there is no substantial evidence available to assess the question by the deadline.