Advanced nanotechnology, specifically atomically precise manufacturing (APM), has the potential to revolutionize various industries and contribute to substantial advancements in technology. In an article on the Effective Altruism Forum, Ben Snodin, a researcher with a relevant PhD, estimates a 1-2% chance of advanced nanotechnology arriving by 2040 in the absence of transformative AI. Snodin defines "core APM" as a system of nanoscale, atomically precise machines that can mechanically assemble small molecules into useful atomically precise products. The development of core APM systems could serve as a precursor to more advanced and complex APM technologies, with significant implications for a range of applications and industries.

Before January 1, 2040, will core APM systems be developed, as evidenced by credible reports or academic publications?

Resolution Criteria:

This question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2040, credible reports or academic publications provide clear and strong evidence that at least one core APM system has been developed. For the purpose of this question, a "core APM system" is defined as:

1. Atomically precise machines have exactly the desired atomic structure, and atomically precise products also have exactly the desired atomic structure. The atomic structure is considered to be precise if deviations from the intended structure are fewer than one in one million atoms in the assembled product.

2. The core APM system mechanically assembles small molecules by controlling their motion using nanoscale machines, employing short-range intermolecular forces to form stable bonds with a partially constructed product. The process must have a success rate of at least 99.99% in forming intended bonds without introducing defects.

Examples of core APM systems include, but are not limited to:

1. A nanoscale machine capable of assembling small molecules into atomically precise graphene sheets, with a purity of at least 99.999% carbon atoms and minimal defects (vacancies, substitutions, or Stone-Wales defects) not exceeding 1 defect per 10^6 carbon atoms.

2. A system of nanoscale machines that can construct atomically precise nanowires or quantum dots for use in advanced electronics. The nanowires should have a diameter uniformity of at least 99.9%, with minimal defects in the crystal structure (e.g., dislocations, vacancies, or substitutions) not exceeding 1 defect per 10^4 unit cells. Quantum dots must have a size uniformity of at least 99.9%, with a consistent crystal structure and defects not exceeding 1 defect per 10^4 unit cells.

3. A core APM system that constructs atomically precise protein structures for use in advanced drug delivery systems or therapeutics. The proteins should have an accurate amino acid sequence with an error rate of no more than 1 in 10^4 amino acids, and a folding error rate not exceeding 1 in 10^3 proteins.

4. A nanoscale machine capable of creating atomically precise metal or alloy structures for use in advanced materials, where the crystal structure has a uniformity of at least 99.99%, and impurities or defects are minimal, not exceeding 1 defect per 10^4 unit cells.

The question will resolve positively if credible reports or academic publications demonstrate the development of a core APM system meeting the criteria specified before January 1, 2040. If no such evidence is provided by the deadline, the question will resolve negatively.