Advanced nanotechnology, specifically atomically precise manufacturing (APM), holds potential for revolutionizing industries and technology. Ben Snodin, a researcher with a relevant PhD, defines "complex APM" as an intricate system of very stiff nanoscale machines joined to progressively larger assembly systems that operate in a vacuum, assembling small molecules into atomically precise products with high throughput and various product sizes.

Before January 1, 2030, will complex APM systems be developed, as evidenced by credible reports or academic publications?

Resolution Criteria:

This question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2030, credible reports or academic publications provide clear and strong evidence that at least one complex APM system has been developed. For the purpose of this question, a "complex APM system" is defined as:

1. An intricate system of very stiff nanoscale machines, with at least 99.9% of their atomic structures matching the desired design.

2. These machines are joined to progressively bigger assembly systems that operate in a vacuum and perform at least 10^6 operations per second.

3. The complex APM system mechanically assembles small molecules into atomically precise products, with at least 99.9% of the products' atomic structures matching the intended design.

4. The system demonstrates high throughput, achieving a production rate of at least 1 kg of atomically precise products per day for a 100 kg complex APM system, with product sizes ranging from nanoscale to meter-scale and beyond.

Examples of complex APM systems include, but are not limited to:

1. A complex APM system capable of assembling small molecules into atomically precise graphene sheets with a purity of at least 99.999% carbon atoms and minimal defects (vacancies, substitutions, or Stone-Wales defects) not exceeding 1 defect per 10^6 carbon atoms.

2. A system of nanoscale machines that can construct atomically precise nanowires with a diameter uniformity of at least 99.9% and minimal defects in the crystal structure (e.g., dislocations, vacancies, or substitutions) not exceeding 1 defect per 10^4 unit cells.

3. A complex APM system that constructs atomically precise protein structures for use in advanced drug delivery systems or therapeutics, with an accurate amino acid sequence error rate of no more than 1 in 10^4 amino acids, and a folding error rate not exceeding 1 in 10^3 proteins.

The question will resolve positively if credible reports or academic publications demonstrate the development of a complex APM system meeting the criteria specified before January 1, 2030. If no such evidence is provided by the deadline, the question will resolve negatively.