Arbitrage opportunity: https://manifold.markets/Quadrifold/-what-is-the-most-likely-future-of

Also the title should say "Palestine", not "Palestina"

Even though 3 > 2, would a three-state solution (Gaza, West Bank, Israel) count?

@mariopasquato I think no, a three-state solution is not a two-state solution.

@mariopasquato the best solution is 3 state solution, Gaza, Israel, West Bank, where Gaza and West Bank are puppet states with permanent IDF presence (like Area B), settlers can stay in WB but they would vote in WB elections and not in Israeli ones (so no Smotrich / Ben Gvir)

@nathanwei Best for who?

@mariopasquato everyone involved, at least in terms of GDP/capita, life expectancy, and other utilitarian metrics

@nathanwei Thinking about how to turn this prediction into a market. Three main problems: defining what counts as a three state solution, defining the metrics to predict (e.g. gdp/capita), and hardest of all setting the time frame. It does not seem realistic that any of this would play out anytime soon if at all.

I would also be more likely to bet if there are clearer definitions and resolution criteria, and the date is pushed back.

By when?

@redcat 2030

@MennoWagenaar Thanks! You're pretty new here (so am I). I think more people will bet on this market if you add some resolution criteria to the description.

@MennoWagenaar you should also push back the resolve date to January 1, 2030 or something like that. (I'm super doubtful that a two state solution will be achieved by November 22nd this year.)