MANIFOLD
BrowseUS ElectionNewsAbout
How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?
Mini
2
Ṁ16
2026
5.3
expected
1D
1W
1M
ALL

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17101/number-of-frontier-ai-labs-on-dec-31-2025/

How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?
The aggregate of 9 Metaculus community forecasters was 4.90 on May 22, 2023.
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00
Comments

Related questions

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
55% chance
Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?
14% chance
Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?
45% chance
Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?
93% chance
What will be the top-3 AI labs in 2030?
What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?
Frontier labs ~trusted by the AI safety community at the end of 2026?
What will be the top 3 AI labs in 2025?
will a paper released in 2025 by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
33% chance
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
55% chance

Related questions

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
55% chance
What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?
Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?
14% chance
Frontier labs ~trusted by the AI safety community at the end of 2026?
Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?
45% chance
What will be the top 3 AI labs in 2025?
Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?
93% chance
will a paper released in 2025 by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
33% chance
What will be the top-3 AI labs in 2030?
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
55% chance
Terms & Conditions•Privacy Policy•Sweepstakes Rules
BrowseElectionNewsAbout