Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?
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From https://metaculus.com/questions/17104/3-frontier-labs-issue-statement-before-2026/
As of 2023-04-28, the Frontier Labs (defined in resolution criteria) are OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, and Google Deepmind, (source). Labs that would join this with a ~10x growth in training compute include Meta, Yandex, Amazon, and Hugging Face.
"3 Frontier Labs" here means that, at the time of the statement, at least 3 signatories are Frontier Labs according to the definition in the resolution criteria.
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