Will more than 1% of young men ages 25-35 in any of the following Western countries die during a single calendar year before 2030? | Manifold

Will more than 1% of young men ages 25-35 in any of the following Western countries die during a single calendar year before 2030?

Plus

23

Ṁ1210

2030

9%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

WEIRD = Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, Developed.

List of WEIRD countries for the purposes of this market:

Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
France
Greece
Germany
Iceland
Italy
Latvia
Luxembourg
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom
United States

#WEIRD Doomsday

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It should be possible to arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-d8733b2114a8.

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

22% chance. If humanity is still around on Jan 1, 2030, then this market resolves to NO. If humanity is not around but AI(s) are then this market resolves to YES. If neither humanity nor AIs are around then this market does not resolve. See also: @/Tripping/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-6d…

Estonia and Latvia on the list, but not Lithuania... Based!

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