Lula, age 79, is to undergo a "minor" brain surgery on Thursday December 12th -- his second brain surgery this month.
https://deepnewz.com/brazil/brazil-s-lula-to-undergo-low-risk-brain-procedure-thursday-after-emergency-1787368b

While Lula is not due for another election until 2026, and other Manifold markets have him as a 60% favorite to seek re-election in 2026, as an 81 year old (!) -- there is no such thing as "minor surgery" for someone his age. Especially a second brain surgery. Which is a complication from a fall he took in October.

https://deepnewz.com/brazil/lula-remains-charge-despite-icu-stay-surgical-intervention-looms-alckmin-duties-bafe5b52

Instead of betting on his health -- and best wishes to Lula there -- let's have a market as to whether he will still be President of Brazil in a couple of months.

Barring unexpected caveats, resolution should be simple. If Lula is President of Brazil on midnight New York time, March 1st 2025 this will resolve YES.

If he steps down -- due to health or any other reason -- then the market will resolve NO.

I don't know the intricacies of Brazilian constitutional law. But if he remains President but is in a coma (for example) -- then that will also resolve as NO -- since Vice President Alckmin would have necessarily taken over. We are talking about Woodrow Wilson 25th Amendment type stuff.

But if Lula is in a Biden-like state -- conscious, active, alive, but a bit "checked out" as President... that will still resolve as a YES.

If he takes an extended vacation but remains President that will resolve in YES.

If he is in a coma, it will resolve as NO.

We will deal with fine distinctions between those cases if they become relevant.

For example, Presidential health nerds will remember that George W Bush underwent heart surgery while President -- he got a stent put in. While he was under anesthesia, Cheney was acting President. But clearly that did not count as Bush stepping down.

Had Bush went into a coma... Cheney would be acting US President... for real now. He would be setting policy. There would be a debate as to whether Bush needs to step aside or what happens if we wakes up. But regardless of those conversations, Cheney would have been President. Similar case here.

Let's hope Lula has a successful operation and a speedy recovery. Whether or not he steps down afterward.

I will be betting this market.