He ran what appears to be an unsuccessful coup. Or a moment of madness?
Will he still be president on Jan 6th 2025 Korean Time -- resolves midnight Korean time.
YES if he is still in office. NO if he is impeached, removed or resigns.
Update 2024-12-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Market resolves YES if Yoon Suk Yeol holds official power, even if impeached
Resolution is based on whether he maintains actual power/office, not impeachment status
Update 2024-14-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For Yoon to be considered out of office, his removal must be confirmed by Constitutional Court, unless he resigns or his party forces him out
Resolution will not occur before Monday unless there is a clear event like resignation
1,000
1.00
Not that we are going by their ruling -- but this is from Polymarket.
For Yoon to be out.... it needs to be confirmed by Constitutional Court -- unless he resigns, his party forces him out, etc. Again -- this is according to Polymarket -- adding it as context.
I have no position in this market (sold initial position days ago) and looking to make a fair ruling.
Will wait until Monday at the earliest (unless something obvious like he resigns).
We used to have clear resolutions in this country...
From the BBC article
The constitutional court now has 180 days to rule on whether Yoon's impeachment should be upheld or whether he can return to office. If it rules in favour of impeachment, an election for the next president must be called within 60 days.
Let's wait until Monday to see as more info comes out. We need a lot more confirmation and Korean sources to resolve something like this.
@Moscow25 There may not be any amount of confirmation or Korean sources that will help here. I think our current understanding of the situation is pretty clear, it's just that the resolution criteria were ambiguous/conflicting. So you're probably going to need to decide whether e.g. you care more about who is addressed by the title of "President" or who is able to wield the official powers of the presidency (or come up with some third secret thing which removes the ambiguity in the question). The sooner you make that basic decision, the better this market will function, and I don't there's any benefit to waiting till Monday for more info.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c140xjv31lxo
Yoon has been suspended while Prime Minister Han Duck-soo has taken over as acting president.
I'm assuming this counts as a no resolution as long as he doesn't get reinstated? @Moscow25 can you confirm if this would count?
YES as long as he holds on to official power
@TheAllMemeingEye This is yet another title-body conflict, like the Mariah Carey fiasco. Is he still President? Yes. Is he still in office? I guess it depends what "in office" means, but he's not the acting president. Has he been impeached, removed, or resigned? Yes. Does he hold official power? Mostly no. Does he hold actual power? Mostly no.
βYES if he is still in office. NO if he is impeached, removed or resigns.β
How does this resolve if he is impeached but is still in office?
@summer_of_bliss if he's in office that is a YES
I'll be honest I don't know the finer points of Korean politics
YES as long as he holds on to official power
