Polling averages will be based on FiveThirtyEight as of election day.
Where there are quotation marks in the answers, I am referring to media / politics twitter dominant narratives. Determined by a clear majority of the narrative. If unclear, then (1st) Nate Silver's take, then (2nd) my take (if I'm >75% confident). Real close calls go 50% or N/A. I won't bet on these.
1,000
1.00
Based on this (from Silver Bulletin), Georgia is the most accurate, none were off by 5+.
Other averages could differ.
To be clear, this should resolve YES iff any of the following jurisdictions votes for the given party:
Republican: anywhere in New England except ME-2, plus NY, NJ, DE, MD, DC, VA, IL, MN, NE-2, NM, CO, CA, OR, WA, HI;
Democratic: SC, FL, AL, MS, TN, KY, WV, OH, IN, IA, MO, AR, LA, TX, OK, KS, NE except the second district, SD, ND, MT, ID, WY, UT, AK.
In other words, the result in the following states does not affect this question: PA, MI, WI, NC, GA, AZ, NV.