Science gives a "breakthrough of the year" every year
Examples of what they named the year's most significant event in the last 4 years:
2020: COVID-19 vaccine, developed and tested at record speed[38]
2021: An AI brings protein structures to all[39]
2022: James Webb Space Telescope debut[40]
2023: GLP-1 Drugs[41]
Link for the 2023 article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breakthrough_of_the_Year?useskin=vector
This should be an exciting market to track people's best guesses about the most important science of 2024 in real-time.
Please look at the suggested answers so far and only propose answers that haven't been suggested yet. Mods will not resolve to answers on topic that have already been suggested will not be resolved to.
They will not multi resolve.
If there is a lot of ambiguity after the announcement comes out, resolvers will hear arguments about what to resolve in the comments. If nobody suggests an answer close enough to the breakthrough most significant event, they will resolve other but I think that is unlikely.
1,000
1.00@creator I want to bet in this market, but I'm once again confused by how this will work if people add more specific answers. Like, currently "Core AI" is at 30%, but if someone adds 5 more specific answers like "Large Language Models" and "AI Image Generation", those would eat into that share.
@NathanpmYoung what level of specificity should the answers be at? (I'm adding answers at the level of broad academic discipline, but perhaps you're looking for more specific guesses...)
@NathanpmYoung ok, I'll add some more specific answers
(maybe I should have asked this before adding answers! I think a good rule of thumb now would be that more specific answers should override less specific ones at resolution time, although I'd want you to confirm whether you'd follow a policy like this ahead of time.)