Earthlings include humans, any other species that evolved on Earth, and Earth-originating AI.
YES examples:
- Earthlings explore Mars and find non-Earth-originating life.
- Earthlings send an interstellar transmission to which aliens reply.
NO examples:
- Aliens invade Earth.
- Aliens transmit a signal towards Earth without having received a transmission from Earth, which is then received and interpreted by Earthlings.
1,000
1.00Given the grabby alien paper and the dissolving the Fermi paradox paper, then:
Either no aliens in the light come or a lot (but still rare in a galaxy) (rarely a few civilisations only in a light cone).
Non grabby civilisation may be much more frequent than grabby civilisations.
Each grabby civilisations meet a lot of non grabby civ
The early grabby civ meet a lot more other grabby civ than the late grabby civ
Earth civ seems to be quite late or in the middle
Because of looking at the first contact only, then a random civ is more likely to be contacted by another one (which is making first contact with a lot of civ)
=> No
Issue remaining: Panspermia
Summary: Some civ make contact with many other civ, there is an asymmetry. The most likely event is we are contacted by a civ which already made contact with many other civs.
@ShadowyZephyr I think that, since we have no idea what the first extraterrestrial life we contact will be like, we can't assume that it would even want to/care about initiating contact. Whereas we already know that humans want to initiate contact. So that makes the probability higher than 50% that we'll be the ones who end up doing it.
