See https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/06/us/politics/trump-very-big-announcement.html

Unless otherwise implied, a topic here only applies to the announcement itself, and not related future policy. Multiple topics can resolve YES at the same time. Some topics are supersets of others, e.g. "Foreign Policy" and "Tariffs."

An invasion of a foreign nation would resolve "Foreign Policy" and "Military" YES. It would also resolve "Tariffs" YES if that invasion caused new tariffs announced at the same time as the invasion.

If by May 20 Trump makes no announcement that is unambiguously the one he referred to on May 6, market settles YES to "Trump makes no announcement by May 20" and NO to everything dependent on him actually making an announcement. (Announcement doesn't need to be made by Trump himself, just by the administration.)

Another nation joining the Abraham Accords would settle "Gaza/Israel conflict" to YES.

• Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the resolution criteria for the Gaza/Israel conflict topic:

  • Any announcement directly involving Israel will cause this topic to resolve to YES.

  • This includes any announcements concerning the Abraham Accords.

  • This applies even if the announcement is not directly about the current conflict.

• Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Further clarification on the Gaza/Israel conflict topic, specifically regarding announcements concerning Iran:

  • An announcement that is primarily policy on Iran will resolve this topic to NO if it does not include substantial mention of Israel.

  • If an announcement concerning Iran includes substantial mention of Israel, it will be considered directly related to Israel and resolve this topic to YES (in line with the 2025-05-07 update stating that any announcement directly involving Israel resolves this topic to YES).

  • The resolution will be determined based on the announcement itself, not the magnitude of any indirect effects the policy might have on Israel.

• Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the relationship between Tariffs and Tax Reform (or a general 'Taxes' topic):

  • Announcements regarding Tariffs will also be considered relevant for the Tax Reform topic (or a general 'Taxes' topic).

  • This is because, as confirmed by the creator, the market's rules define taxes to include tariffs.

• Update 2025-05-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated their planned process for resolving the market:

  • Once the creator is confident in identifying the specific announcement referred to in the market question, they will proceed with the following steps.

  • A draft resolution will be written.

  • This draft will then be shared to request for comment before the market is finally resolved.

• Update 2025-05-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the resolution criteria for the US economy topic:

  • This topic will resolve to YES if the announcement involves anything that has a significant impact on the US economy.

  • This interpretation was proposed by user @Odoacre in response to the creator's request for clarification, and the creator agreed to it.

  • An example discussed and accepted was that an announcement concerning medical costs would qualify if it is deemed to have a significant impact on inflation, thereby impacting the US economy.

• Update 2025-05-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has announced their intention to resolve the market, identifying the pharmaceutical prices announcement as the likely subject of Trump's "very big announcement."

  • A draft resolution has been shared, detailing how topics such as Prescription drug and pharmaceutical prices, Medicare, and US Economy are expected to settle based on this identification.

  • The creator is seeking feedback on this proposed resolution and will not finalize the market resolution for at least two days.

  • Please refer to the creator's full comment for their detailed reasoning and the complete proposed settlement.

• Update 2025-05-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the resolution of the 'Manifold agrees...' topic (previously listed as TBD as part of the draft resolution), the creator is seeking input on how it should be resolved and has outlined the following potential methods:

  • Resolve to what appears to be the most obvious interpretation, and then check if anyone objects.

  • Conduct a poll to determine the outcome.

  • Treat this specific topic as self-resolving.

• Update 2025-05-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified their intended resolution for the 'Democrats broadly agree the announcement is positive' topic:

  • This topic is likely to resolve to NO.

  • The assessment is based on the interpretation that, even if the policy itself is viewed as potentially good, the prevailing Democratic sentiment appears to be that the announcement constitutes "just signaling" by Trump, and they do not appear "actually happy" about the order.

  • The focus is on the overall reception and perceived sincerity of the announcement among Democrats, rather than solely on the abstract positivity of the proposed policy.

• Update 2025-05-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A poll will be used to help resolve the question: "Is Trump's announcement 'very, very big', 'as big as it gets', 'one of the most important in many years about [topic]'!"

• Update 2025-05-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided an update on the market resolution process:

  • Most topics are scheduled for resolution in approximately 4 hours from the time of the creator's comment. This resolution will be based on the pharmaceutical prices announcement, as previously outlined in the draft resolution, and is contingent on no new information or significant discussion arising before then.

  • The resolution of two specific topics will be deferred to a later time:

  • 'Manifold agrees...'

  • 'Democrats broadly agree the announcement is positive'

• Update 2025-05-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the US economy topic and its 2025-05-11 clarification:

  • The creator indicated that a previous AI summary might be misleading and referred to the original user statement by @Odoacre for precise understanding.

  • The resolution is based on @Odoacre's suggestion:

    'i was thinking anything that has a significant impact on the us economy. In this particular example, I would expect medical costs to have a significant impact on inflation, so I would count this as yes (which is why I bought it up)'

  • The key criterion is a 'significant impact on the US economy'. The discussion of medical costs impacting inflation serves as an example of this principle.

• Update 2025-05-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that almost all topics have now been settled. This addresses a user's question about the timing of resolution for options not tied to a specific poll.