My current model of US tariffs are

- there are Trump 301 tariffs
- there are standard existing tariffs

For standard existing tariffs you can get nice machine readable spreadsheet by HTS code. You can also get a nice machine-readable spreadsheet for volume by quantities (kg, meter, etc) and total value imported. But there isn't something nice like this for Trump 301 tariffs.

Let me know if you're aware of a nice machine-readable representation of Trump's tariffs or exceptions by HTS code, or you'd like to make one for me! Also lmk if my representations are wrong

There are least two different definitions of tariff on Chinese imports. One is the weighted average tariff rate for all volume from China (imo the right metric).

Another is a tariff that applies to all Chinese goods, ie minimum tariff rate. Though for this you’d have to consider if there are exceptions does that mean to use a the lower rate or ignore the exceptions.

It does look like electronics e.g. take up a large percentage of imports and it seems plausible that there will ultimately be large exceptions.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-all-the-stuff-the-us-imports-from-china-thats-causing-a-huge-trade-deficit-2018-03-23

I think using volume-weighted tariffs might be bad because.. suppose that the tariff rate was 1000% on almost all Chinese imports except some subset. Then that subset might dominate the volume at resolution time, but we still do care about the fact that there's a 1000% tariff.

Something possibly better might be tariff weighted by volume on market creation or Jan 1 2024-Jan 1 2025. I would prefer not to spend a lot of time exactly evaluating 2024-volume-weighted tariffs.

Default plan: I will do my best to fermi-estimate this measure, place my estimate on this market as a comment, give people at least two weeks to debate my estimate and correct me if I'm wrong, and then I will resolve based on my best-guess estimate.

Does that seem sensible or bad to you?

@NoaNabeshima, you might want to recreate these as numeric markets.