When will US tariffs on China first go back to 50% or below again? I care because I get PCBs manufactured in China all the time, and right now it's very painful to place orders for my start-up.

Please read the answers carefully – I will resolve a contiguous range of them, with the later answers having higher prices. For example, if tariffs drop to 45% in August, and then stay there for a month, I'll resolve answers April, May, June, July as NO, and August through December as YES. (There is no "none of the above" answer, because that would just be the same as betting NO on the last answer.)

I intend to evaluate this sort of subjectively, with the rough standard being "the normal tariff that gets paid to the US to get something (say, PCBs, CNC machining, injection molding) manufactured in China is at most 50% for about a solid month or so". I think a weird landscape of bizarre carve-outs is pretty plausible, and in such cases I intend to evaluate things relatively subjectively, per my discretion of the costs to a US start-up to get real goods manufactured in China.

I am subsidizing this market because it is actually relevant to my business decision making, but I won't bet in it.

• Update 2025-05-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding de minimis exemptions:

  • An exemption primarily affecting consumer goods will generally not count towards resolution if the general tariff rate (e.g., for industrial goods relevant to a start-up) remains above 50%.

  • This position could be reconsidered, at the creator's discretion, if the de minimis exemption is dramatically expanded (e.g., limit significantly raised or scope broadened).