By 2028, will any coding copilot look more like "pairing with an LLM" than "smart autocomplete"?
By 2028, will any coding copilot look more like "pairing with an LLM" than "smart autocomplete"?
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Resolves 2028-02-01, based on my vibes from the coding I've done in the last month-ish. Resolves YES if any copilot exists that "feels like pairing" and costs under $50 for me to try for an hour.
Things that would make a copilot seem more "pair"-y to me:
voice I/O rather than text
asking intelligent clarifying questions
pointing out potential mistakes I've made, or better ways to organize the code
displaying some knowledge of the broad invariants of the system not obvious from local code analysis
Things that seem like "smart autocomplete":
its main contribution being suggestions for what to type next
being able to extrapolate long function bodies by gluing together code that already exists scattered around the code base
being able to do clever type-system constraint-solving to figure stuff out
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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