🐕 OpenLLMs: Will Any Open Source LLM on the HuggingFace OpenLLM Leaderboard Significantly Gain in Avg Score by YE 2024? | Manifold

🐕 OpenLLMs: Will Any Open Source LLM on the HuggingFace OpenLLM Leaderboard Significantly Gain in Avg Score by YE 2024?

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Previous market on this topic:

https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/open-source-llms-will-any-open-sour

I reserve the right to upgrade the metric used if the one used in the above market is stale. I aim to have things finalized for this market by end of January 2024.

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taking my money out because i feel like these leaderboards are too fake

predicts YES

What was the top A value at the start of the year?

@ashly_webb 76.72 https://huggingface.co/spaces/HuggingFaceH4/open_llm_leaderboard

reposted

?

Does the addition of a new, better open source model count?

@ashly_webb Yes, because the question is, will ANY OpenLLM...so any includes future, doesn't exist yet.

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Related questions

When will a non-Transformer model become the top open source LLM?

Will openAI have the most accurate LLM across most benchmarks by EOY 2024?

Will OpenAI have the best LLM in 2024?

Will any LLM outrank GPT-4 by 150 Elo in LMSYS chatbot arena before 2025?

Will an opensource LLM on huggingface beat an average human at the most common LLM benchmarks by July 1, 2024?

What will be true of OpenAI's best LLM by EOY 2025?

Will I think that the top Chatbot Arena scores accurately reflect which LLMs are most capable and useful at EOY 2024?

Who will be ahead in the AI/LLM war by the end of 2024?

Will an open-source LLM beat or match GPT-4 by the end of 2024?

Will Google have a better LLM than OpenAI by 2025?

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