338Canada update:

Conservatives achieve their highest ever seat projection of 229, up from 228. They are projected to obtain 66.8% of seats in Canada, a supermajority.

Liberals achieve their lowest ever seat projection of just 51, with their chance of remaining the official opposition at 73%, an all-time low, and with the Bloc Quebecois at 27%.

338Canada update:

Conservatives achieve their highest ever seat projection of 228, up from 221. They are now projected to sweep Saskatchewan and PEI, and all but one seat in Alberta. They are projected to obtain 81.1% of seats in English Canada (all regions excluding Quebec), and 66.5% of seats in all of Canada, a near supermajority.

Liberals achieve their lowest ever seat projection of just 53, prompting the creation of a new graph to showcase their chance of remaining the official opposition, which is 83%, with the Bloc Quebecois at 17%.

Major update: 3 consecutive polls now have the NDP and the Liberals in a statistical tie, with two of them showing the NDP above the Liberals:

The NDP hasn't polled above the Liberals since 2015, 9 years ago. Conservatives continue to dominate, with a commanding 24 point lead over the NDP

338Canada now has their highest ever projected total seats for the Conservatives at 221, Liberals at their lowest ever projected seat total of 61. Bloc Quebecois remains at their record high while the NDP remains near their record low:

New 338Canada update:

Conservatives at their all-time high seat projection, and Liberals at their all-time low seat projection. Bloc surges while NDP languishes near all-time low:

When it comes to the popular vote, a similar story is told, with the Conservatives near their all-time high:

Conservatives maintain their greater than 99% chance of victory:

@PeterNjeim surely you don’t actually believe its >99%, right?

@spider when did I say that? Please read the comments below to learn my opinion, not gonna repeat myself ad nauseum

@PeterNjeim good, I assumed you didn’t.

Conservatives are now utterly dominant in the polls:

Second Liberal stronghold collapses:

NDP narrowly maintains stronghold, Conservatives rise markedly:

Resolution if Liberals win under a leader other than JT?

As explained earlier in the comments, this market was poorly made and will simply become less accurate if one of the candidates leaves. The JT option is for JT only, not a hypothetical Liberal candidate. As of the time of writing, this market would resolve N/A if none of the listed candidates win. However, there's some talk about whether Manifold will add an auction system, where I could close the market, change the JT option to a new Liberal candidate, and then hold an auction to make it fair when reentering the market with this new option. But unless a fair method of closing and reopening the market is added, I won't be doing that

@PeterNjeim it might be worth editing the description to include this, given the volume of comments.

@spider it's not really that important, the market is asking if a specific candidate will win, if someone interprets that as meaning a certain party, that's them misreading it

New Abacus poll shows 20 point lead for the Conservatives. First time for Abacus since June 13th, 2024. That's two huge polls on the same day:

90% a year out is very bold.

In 2015 Trudeau was toast until a just couple weeks out

Haven't we already spoken about this? The important stat isn't Trudeau, it's about monumental unpopularity in the third term

Yeah I’m not focusing on Trudeau in particular being the comeback kid. I just mean that a lot of things can happen in a year. The race shifted in just two weeks in summer 2015.

One of the most mispriced markets on manifold :) yes tories lead, but a lot can happen in the next 1.5 years.

A lot indeed, but a miracle isn't included in that lot

ever since the removal of loans you can't put much stock in long term markets

New record for the Conservatives. New Mainstreet poll shows their highest ever lead for the Conservatives at 22pp, the second highest lead ever recorded, and the highest recorded lead for an A- or higher rating pollster. It also shows Conservatives with 45% support, the second highest support level ever, the highest being 45.6% back in early March. Liberals and NDP combined only make up 38%, a 7pp lead for the Conservatives over the failing duo

Canada and America are acting in parallel. Both incumbent left-wing leaders are being asked to not seek reelection: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9781gr02p5o