Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by the end of President Donald Trump's current term on January 20, 2029, Syria officially signs the Abraham Accords, thereby normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel. Official confirmation must come from credible sources such as government announcements or reputable news outlets. If no such agreement is signed by that date, the market will resolve to "No".

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Background

The Abraham Accords, initiated in 2020, are agreements between Israel and several Arab nations, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, aimed at normalizing relations. In May 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump met with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Riyadh, urging Syria to join the Accords. Sharaa expressed openness to the idea under certain conditions, including the lifting of U.S. sanctions and addressing territorial disputes with Israel. (reuters.com) Subsequent reports indicated that Syria rejected joining the Accords, citing Israel's occupation of Syrian territories as a significant barrier. (syrianobserver.com)

Considerations

Syria's potential accession to the Abraham Accords is complicated by longstanding territorial disputes, particularly over the Golan Heights, which Israel captured from Syria in 1967. Additionally, Syria's internal political dynamics and regional alliances may influence its decision-making process regarding normalization with Israel. Traders should monitor official statements from the Syrian government, developments in U.S.-Syria relations, and regional diplomatic activities for indicators of progress or setbacks in this area.