Disclaimer:
I am not allowed to bet in this market in case of extenuating circumstances requiring me to make an executive decision for resolution.
Resolution Criteria:
TL;DR, will Trump be POTUS for ≥42 months and <43 months? Most of these criteria points are covering the corner cases. If I missed a corner case, and it happens, market resolves to best judgement.
Assume EST time zones for all dates and times. "Exactly 42 months" is defined as the market window from Jul 20, 2028 to Aug 19, 2028, conservatively allowing until 11:59pm on the last day. If the inauguration is somehow delayed past Jan 20, 2025 by any number "n" days, shift these dates forward by n days. (These dates were calculated by Googling "42 months from Jan 20 2025" and "43 months from Jan 20 2025" and subtracting one day from the last date to still be considered the 42nd month.)
If Trump ceases to be as a person before being inaugurated POTUS or forfeits the office before being inaugurated POTUS, then market resolves N/A.
If Trump is inaugurated POTUS and stops being POTUS for any length of time during the market window or ceases to be as a person during the market window, then market resolves YES.
If Trump is inaugurated POTUS, and then the previous criteria's operating conditions are met, except they occur before the market window, then market resolves NO.
If Trump is inaugurated POTUS, and the office of POTUS ceases to be during the market window, then market resolves YES.
If Trump is inaugurated POTUS, and then the previous criteria's operating conditions are met, except they occur before the market window, then market resolves NO.
If Trump is inaugurated POTUS, and the nation of the United States of America ceases to be recognized by the United Nations during the market window, or if 1 or more States cecedes from the Union according to that State's legislature during the market window, then market resolves YES. (He can't be President of the United States if they aren't united.)
If Trump is inaugurated POTUS, and then the previous criteria's operating conditions are met, except they occur before the market window, then market resolves NO.
If Trump is somehow not inaugurated POTUS by end of day Jan 20 2026, then market resolves N/A.
If the office of POTUS somehow doesn't exist by Jan 21, 2025, then market resolves N/A. This criteria assumes no moment of discontinuity of the office of POTUS as it is transferred from one person to another.
All else, market resolves NO based on the state of the world at the end of the market window.
In the event of a reasonable corner case that is somehow not covered, I (or mods) reserve the right to resolve this market in best judgement of its spirit.
The Context:
The Bible, Revelation Chapter 13 (pick your favorite translation). https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Revelation%2013&version=NKJV
The Book of Revelation is about the "End Times" prophecy in the Christian religion. One could interpret the first assassination attempt on Trump as Verse 3.
This market is in reference to Verse 5.
1,000
1.00@Quroe Every bettor hold NO. This high price has more to do with how much mana bettors are willing to tie up for this long
Change log for changes in the first week are in this thread:
Invoking my clause to edit the criteria for 1 week after creation. Updated bullet 4 (the case of delayed inauguration) of resolution criteria from Mar 1, 2025 to Jun 20, 2025. This way, Trump could still serve 42 months as POTUS before the next inauguration. Mar 1 was originally an arbitrary date, but I think this makes more sense.
After giving it some more thought, I think it makes more sense to resolve N/A if he is not inaugurated. I'll give him a year from the 20th Amendment's mandated Inauguration Day to be inaugurated to be super generous. I also realize that I didn't really give a good NO criteria for an all-as-normal term length, so I'll just make NO the catch all case.
There were more corner cases on states ceceding that I wanted to cover, and it started to get wordy, so I simplified the definition of a state ceceding. I'll accept the silliness that this implies if Puerto Rico joins then cecedes. This definition may require some executive judgement on my part to call, but I'll accept that risk.
I am now happy with the resolution criteria. This section of text is now removed from the disclaimer:
"[I am allowed to add/modify resolution criteria in the self evident spirit of this market during the first week of market operation as people comment to check my work and stress test resolution criteria with hypotheticals. Bet with caution during this time. Screenshotting the resolution criteria for your records is advised. This bracketed text will be edited out after 1 week.]"
One other translation or interpretation of Verse 5 could be that 42 months is in reference to a length of war, not a length of office.
I'd be interested in making an entirely different market for that, but the resolution criteria for that may not be as cut and dry as I'd like it to be. I'm open to suggestions. I don't want to be caught in the ambiguity of, 'did a war really end if people are still shooting at each other?'.
I'd probably also wait for such a war declaration to be made before creating that market.
I welcome any Constitutional or Biblical expert weigh in. How can I make this market better?
@Quroe I think starting the question with "According to the Bible..." or something similar would be a significant improvement.
@BrunoParga I want to "clickbait" with a title that seems like the answer is obvious and religion-agnostic at first, but then spring the context on them. I want to get a diverse perspective on this question and not turn off anybody from clicking this market in the first place.
Can you further your argument for why it would be an improvement? I'm open to the idea.
@BrunoParga Interesting! Help me understand.
It seems like you are taking the stance of:
Clickbait is anything that advertises content engagement.
Clickbait is categorically bad.
The resolution criteria of this market does not reflect the market title.
Am I characterizing your argument correctly? Or am I misrepresenting you?
I have attempted to make a market that is strictly about a 42-month term, and I tried to have a plan for any contingency. I want to put some extra context on the table for traders' consideration, but it should have no bearing on how this market resolves. Have I done something dishonest?
@Quroe yes, because the reason for this specific period of time in the title is biblical. I likely wouldn't have bothered clicking had I known that; that deliberate omission wasted my time.
@BrunoParga That doesn’t affect the resolution criteria though, so why do OP’s motivations for asking the question make it a waste of your time?
@Quroe I don't read tags on the feed, and that's on me. (I assume tags are AI-generated and inaccurate.) If neither the paragraph nor the tag were present I wouldn't find this a waste of my time, no - it'd be just another quirky market, one that could have just as well been 41 or 43 months.
@BrunoParga The tags were populated by an AI at first, but I manually curated it after that to be a list of content warnings.
I appreciate you being honest with your feedback. I still wish for my context blurb and title to remain as is, but I did move the context blurb to be the last item on the description so people don't have to read it to understand the market criteria.