Resolves as YES if the annual cost of Semaglutide drops below $2000 (US) in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy. Various factors such as discounts and generics may contribute to the price reduction before January 1st, 2031. This question primarily focuses on the out-of-pocket cost for an uninsured patient to account for variations in national healthcare reimbursement and prescription policies.
Semaglutide questions:
/RemNi/will-semaglutide-cost-less-than-100
/RemNi/will-semaglutide-cost-less-than-200 (this question)
Key Details: Current Cost: As of 2024, the cost of Semaglutide, commonly marketed under brand names such as Ozempic and Wegovy, is typically higher than $2000 per year in many regions.
Price Measurement: The price considered will be the average annual cost for a standard dosage as prescribed for an adult patient.
Verification: The price will be verified through publicly available data from reputable sources such as healthcare databases, insurance company formularies, or pharmaceutical company pricing information.
Timeline: The market will resolve based on the prices available before January 1st, 2031.
Resolution Criteria:
Yes: If before January 1st, 2031, the average annual cost of Semaglutide for a standard dosage is found to be less than $2000 in at least 4 of the specified countries (USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy), this market will resolve to "Yes."
No: If the price remains $2000 or higher in at least 6 of these 9 countries, this market will resolve to "No."
Additional Information: The market takes into consideration various forms of price reduction, including but not limited to discounts and generic versions, as long as the out-of-pocket cost to the patient averages less than $2000 per year.
Adjustments for inflation or changes in standard dosage guidelines will not be factored into the resolution of this market. The exchange rate value is taken into account for different currencies compared to the US dollar.
1,000
1.00What about compounded versions? You can get that for $250 ish per month now at compounding pharmacies in the U.S.
@HWH yeah I might explicitly exclude these in the description. Could you define what compounding pharmacies are?
@RemNi First, there is some sort of glitch going on with Manifold where I tried to edit my comment, but the edit doesn’t seem to stick. I meant to put that it is $250 per month, which is currently above the $2000 per year limit, but I could see that going down. I thought about that particular claim some more, and then remembered that compounding pharmacies have permission to make Semaglutide right now because it is on the FDA’s shortage list, but it might be the case in the future that they are no longer able to make it once Semaglutide is no longer considered to be in a shortage (though I think the price will go down overall when we’re no longer in a shortage). Basically, as a way to increase accessibility right now in the U.S., a medical provider can prescribe you Semaglutide and specifically have it sent to a compounding pharmacy, where they mix the compounds of the medication onsite at the pharmacy for you.
"Yes: If before January 1st, 2031, the average annual cost of Semaglutide for a standard dosage is found to be less than $2000 in at least 4 of the specified countries (USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy), this market will resolve to "Yes."
No: If the price remains $2000 or higher in fewer than 4 of these countries, this market will resolve to "No."
As-worded no seems to only happen if the price drops below $2000 in 6+ of the 9 countries.
@RemNi you can buy it gray-market from compounding labs. it's not "cheap" but a lot cheaper than legal prescription in the US.
@EvanDaniel nominal dollars + exchange rate basis. Thinking that medical tourism could turn out to be significant for various drugs in the early 2030s.