Resolves as YES if we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st 2030 at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1).
Questions with the same criteria:
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d18e9fd38cd1
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a380452919f1
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-93a1ac777df5
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-f5a1947c172a
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-99b4d79ded14
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-600c021a4d39 (this question)
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before
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/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-02fec46476dd
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a34a5044ccca
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d778d2f304f5
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-607391b6e7ff
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/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-c3873b782b65
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-8213a4d4f7e6
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-ca980dd1dca2
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-719c22dafd13
Numeric market:
/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-fusion-reactors
Other reference points for fusion reactors:
/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-585b179f8ac3
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Other questions for 2030:
/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030
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/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-f0c1a341f8ea
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/RemNi/will-a-significant-ai-generated-mem-35fc023d619f
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor
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/RemNi/will-the-dancing-plague-return-befo-d5d68a482594
Engineering breakeven is defined here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor#Engineering_breakeven
The fusion reactor must have been built by human civilization or one of its descendants in order to qualify in the context of this question.
1,000
1.00Helion is in contract with Microsoft to produce a fusion reactor for them by 2028. This isn't a certainty, but I'd certainly put it above 25% (current P when purchasing this)
https://www.helionenergy.com/articles/announcing-helion-fusion-ppa-with-microsoft-constellation/