The market can be resolved to
Wins: +20% or more (NO)
Wins: <20% (YES)
The mentioned market settled on 06. November.
$DJT had a closing price of 34.34$ on 04. November and 27.69$ on 07. November.
Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) Stock Historical Prices & Data - Yahoo Finance

If this wasn't just based on pre/post election day, I think the -20% option would be much better here. If you glance at their prospectus, it's just a disaster. They fundamentally admit that the stock is entirely dependent on people caring about Trump's personal brand, they have no path to turning a profit, and if anything happens to him it's kaput. Does it fall that much over 1-3 days? Probably not. Does it fall that much if he gets incarcerated, if people stop paying attention to him, etc etc, over the course of a year or two? Pretty easily.

If he wins, does the loses option resolve No? N/A?

@jack The lose options would resolve N/A. Should have specified.

Also, the “loses” questions are phrased ambiguously. Which answer indicates the market will decline less than 20%?

Whichever way the election goes, polling data is likely to give a good indication in the days leading up to the election. Whatever the result, it seems unlikely to be a +20% surprise on Election Day. Either way, expect more volatility going into the election than coming out of it.

... is this testing out whether partially dependent markets would be worthwhile??