I’m expecting a spike around December 31/Jan 1 (holidays, more time on devices, more markets resolving, etc.) so a 30% increase from 1 - 31 is probably harder here than any other time of year

@Gen I assume that more markets close on Jan 1 than on any other day in Manifolds history. Not a representative day at all.

Keep in mind the way conditional markets work. Conditional on the fact we decide to keep working on Manifold Dating, it's more likely to succeed than in the world where we don't. So these numbers here will always be a little optimistic for that option...

@SG Otoh, @JamesGrugett is very stubborn so maybe the conditional signal is not that good lol

@SG you should read DYNOMIGHT’s piece on this, if you haven’t already!

Even if Manifold Dating itself isn’t successful, the free press generated by media covering the concept will repay your investment by bringing more users to check out the base Manifold app and increasing brand recognition 💵 💵 💵

Kinda cynical but I suppose I’m one of those “all press is good press” people.

It looks like the norm is to have slightly negative growth outside of specific events (LK-99, NYT article). I can't look back further on the stats page and I don't know the history of the site, but what would you even do to intentionally get 30% growth in a normal month? (and if there's something you can do to get 30% growth in a typical month, why not just do that now?)

My guess is that a lot of the probability of a 30% increase in Jan in either case comes from reasons/events independent of Manifold Dating

interesting use of this market type!

We aren't looking for 30% growth with this bet, but 1,000% or 10,000%. The market should be, in 6 months, are we more likely to have 10x growth with Manifold Dating or without it.

@JamesGrugett I agree with this. 1-2k DAUs is not nearly enough. You need to be maximizing the odds of 100k+ DAUs for manifold to be at all viable

@SG worry, wrong market.

/SG/will-manifold-hit-100000-daus-in-20-4c0ec31d0a72