Must the applications be built or just possible?

@ian Possible is sufficient, as long as it's affecting behavior in some meaningful way. For instance if multiple countries stopped investing in submarines because they're too vulnerable to some BSM-based attack, then that would count even if nobody had bothered to demonstrate the attack.

Weirdly, I don't think this market will end up having an ambiguous resolution. Militarily relevant things have a way of being built as soon as it becomes clear that they're possible!