Prediction market enthusiasts have long touted conditional prediction markets as one of the unique benefits that prediction markets could provide. Conditional markets could be used to guide critical decisions, like Federal monetary policy. For example, one conditional market (1) "Will month-on-month inflation exceed 1% in August, if the Fed raises the federal funds rate to 2.25%?" can be compared to another conditional market (2) "Will month-on-month inflation exceed 1% in August, if the Fed raises the federal funds rate to 2.5%?", to assess the impact of these different policies.

The two largest real-money prediction markets are Polymarket and Kalshi. Yet neither has launched a conditional prediction market. Who will be the first to innovate in this space, and launch the world's first real-money conditional prediction market?

(Real money here includes both USD and cryptocurrencies.)

Jul 13, 4:10pm: The "Neither" option indicates that outcome where neither Kalshi nor Polymarket will launch a conditional market before the date of expiration of this market (which is September 30, 2022).

Jul 13, 7:15pm: The "Neither" option also includes the case in which another real-money prediction market, that is neither Kalshi nor Polymarket, arises and launches a conditional prediction market before the expiration of this market and does so before any other existing real-money prediction market does so.