
In 2028, will democrats have a major presidential candidate from the centrist wing of the party?
Mini
11
แน3712028
62%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I will take "Centrist wing of the party" to mean "among the 40% most right wing democratic congressmen per dw-nominate". If it's a real outsider without a dw nominate score, will try to clarify as I go.
(For comparison, Biden was about the 50th percentile in the 11th congress, so this would require someone slightly more conservative than Biden relative to the party average).
"Major presidential candidate" means one of the top three candidates in the primary by delegate shares (conditional on winning at least one state).
(Since this may end up being mildly subjective, I won't bet)
Get
1,000and
1.00
Related questions
Related questions
2028 Democratic nominee?
Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?
Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?
Will the Democratic Party Nominee for 2028 be a woman?
34% chance
Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?
57% chance
Will a Democrat win the 2028 Presidential Election?
57% chance
Will a Democrat be elected president in 2028?
56% chance
Democrats win 2028 election?
57% chance
Who will be major candidates in the 2028 Democratic primaries?
Who will be running in the Democratic Primary for the 2028 presidential election?