Including both combatants and civilians, as reported by Israeli sources. This market will resolve after the war is over and official estimates are available. Close date may be extended.
Note: This market it only for Palestinian casualties, i.e. people from Gaza and potentially the West Bank (but only if the casualties are related to the war). This will not include any casualties from other parties that might join the war, nor of Israeli-Arabs, regardless of how they identify. This is done to clear up the market definitions and make it resolvable, not because of taking any stance as to people's identities.
See also
1,000
1.00Senior military officials in Israel reported ~2 civilian deaths per Hamas death and confirmed that 5000 dead Hamas fighters as "more or less right." Would this be enough sufficient to say the total is >8000?
@Panfilo As with the other one, I wrote "Israeli source" here, and there hasn't been any Israeli estimate yet. If we don't get any, I would take an international estimate, but the point was that I wasn't sure if Hamas numbers could be trusted. Anyways, don't expect this to resolve too soon
@Shump I was under the impression that "Israeli sources" would still be secondary since they're not counting the bodies in Gaza, Gazans are. Does this mean that there has to be some official "we believe the count" moment in Israeli centrist publications?
@Panfilo tbh I regret writing this, also because I since read that the Hamas estimates are more reliable than Israelis tend to think they are, but I think it would be too big of a change to do so long after this market opened
@Panfilo I do expect the IDF to release a count at some point, they have done so in the past. Might only be after the war though
@Shump https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20231105-israel-security-source-claim-20000-killed-in-gaza/
An anonymous Israeli official claimed >20k over a month ago according to ynet. What level of formality do you require?
@SamFlanders Not this level, that's for sure. Something stated publicly by the IDF or government will suffice.
Wiki claims at least 10,000 casualties have already occurred on the Palestinian side: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war#. I think that the market will likely resolve to 16k+ early.
The even-bigger-buckets market has >16K as over 50%, and Israel has reconfirmed that the ground invasion is eventually happening and has a date: https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717231654668808485?s=20
@Panfilo The even-bigger-buckets market now has >16,000 as about 80% net. https://manifold.markets/nsokolsky/bins-up-to-256000-death-toll-in-202?r=UGFuZmlsbw
23% on 4-8k seems very overpriced to me. There's been on average ~300 deaths per day from the airstrikes, and the ground offensive hasn't even started yet. A hospital was also destroyed today which alone has a death toll of 500 and rising (edit: this number was likely exaggerated, my fault for citing before more evidence came out, still stand by the rest of this comment though). Given that counted deaths are lagging, I'd be surprised if the number of actual deaths weren't already over 4,000 after 10 days, and there are 75 days left in the year.
https://manifold.markets/NikitaSokolsky/bins-up-to-256000-death-toll-in-202
I'm personally hoping for as little casualties as possible but here's an extended market.
@saulmunn Jesus Christ, I hope I won't have to make any more markets. I'll make another one if the last option gets very high here.
@Shump okay, thank you. manifold is wonderful to get information about what’s happening; it’s worrying to me that the market gives such a high chance of “>16,000,” which leaves many orders of magnitude on the table.
@Shump You can "Allow yourself to add new answers later" and use the "other" option as the highest bin next time. I hope we wont need it here though.
@gigab0nus I think this way is fairer. Adding new options interacts with Other bets in a weird way, it might not be fair for people who bet on that
@Shump Hm, what do you mean? If you bet on "other" then you get what you pay for, no matter how many options are split off later. I have no idea how the subsidies work but otherwise i can't see a problem