Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: African National Congress loses its majority in the South African National Assembly
Plus
17
Ṁ8549resolved Jun 4
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions
This is a prediction from Matthew Yglesias's 2024 predictions. I will be resolving early when possible but in cases of ambiguity, the ultimate source of truth is Matt's evaluation.
Matt predicts 60% for this question
Matt's calibration for reference:
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Related questions
Related questions
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Immigration/border/asylum legislation passes
23% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: No Supreme Court vacancy
86% chance
Matt Yglesias 2024 predictions: Will Democrats lose at least one senate seat outside of WV/MT/OH?
98% chance
Will @MatthewYglesias's 2024 predictions perform at least as well as his 2023 predictions by his own assessment?
32% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Net electoral college bias continues to favor the GOP
85% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Pro-GOP electoral college bias diminishes from its 2020 level
96% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: No Biden change in Biden’s cabinet
94% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Unemployment rate stays above 3%
97% chance
Will the ANC lose power in South Africa before 2035?
75% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Far-right Freedom Party will be largest in Austrian Parliament
98% chance