Pew Research surveys validated voters after national elections and asked them about their demographics and vote. Here are the results after the 2022 midterms:

You can also see the results for the 2016 election here.

This market will resolve based on Pew's findings after the 2024 election, by comparing the change in vote % from 2020. the square brackets show the gap in 2020

Any option where the gap in percentage points of vote margins is larger than that of 2020 will resolve YES. All others will resolve NO. Ties will resolve NO, even if more granular data is available. This means that the difference must be 1% when rounded.

Credit to @Joshua for the inspiration. See