*The tweet the community note is attached to must have at least 5,000 impressions and be for 30 minutes. This is just to stop people from manipulating a community note on to some small tweet.
Rough summary of how Community Notes (CN) work:
Community notes is an open-source project recently introduced on X (prev Twitter)
Any Twitter user with a verified phone number can sign up to be a contributor.
Any contributor can write a note that provides additional context on any tweet.
Multiple contributors can write notes which other contributors can vote on which is the best one. Then using an algorithm one may be shown in the description of the tweet - normally in cases where the original tweet contains misinformation or is misleading.
CNs often contain a link to some sort of news source which includes an image preview to said source. The idea is that this in theory could be a prediction market, but someone just has to link one.
Sign up to be a CN contributor.
Then start creating notes which include a Manifold market as the source!
If we end up officially partnering with X to add prediction markets as some sort of new feature, then this will also resolve as yes as long as it is using Manifold on the backend to create the market. Although this is not the main expected resolution fulfiller.
1,000
1.00While on the background X.com
community notes may somehow work as a market, I don’t think a link to a Manifold market will be added soon because sources need to be considered “reliable”, and Manifold it’s still very new. That said, I’m not sure the “general public” understands or even know what a prediction market is and its reliability. Thoughts on this?
@JaimeSantaCruz Yeah seems to be the key issue. Not enough community note contributors are familiar enough to upvote them, yet alone cite them.
@NathanpmYoung tried creating notes with markets but I don't think they got enough positive ratings, maybe he can share more on the exact details.
This feels like Manifold vastly overestimating its own importance to think that CN would care about a playmoney prediction site (somewhere like polymarket would have far better odds and even then it's sketchy).
The only thing stopping me from max betting NO down to as cheap as any other ending 2023 market which I think is basically certain is the vague resolution criteria that feels prone to manipulation with some 'well technically it appeared in this random tweet for 3 minutes because me and a few friends coordinated to accept it' type resolution, and the lack of clarification even after it was asked for.
So this market probably exists to bait such an outcome (hence why there's so much discussion on how to sign up and basically no resolution criteria) and I think 1/3 for enough people to bother to actually pull this off is probably still a bit overpriced but not far from fair.
These markets are less lame when the resolution criteria is well defined like the Wikipedia page one.
@c0m tbh I think this is a serious disqualification of manifold as a platform. Apparently even the people in charge don't care about their own markets enough to answer serious resolution criteria. If you want to be taken seriously try to act like it a least a little bit.
@c0m fyi the reason for this market is because we had a call with the lead of community notes who is excited about prediction markets (altho still unsure how much they would improve community notes). That's partly why the probability is as high as it is.
I've clarified 30mins now, sorry this wasnt sooner.
@SirSalty I was getting the impression this market is just a gimmick for fucking with community notes so I got a little more agitated than I should have perhaps
@WieDan np, I need to be more careful to check my notifs it would seem. Although, if you @ me then I get a push notif and will defo see it.
@WieDan sorry missed the comment the first time. Made the criteria when not 100% familiar with how they worked.
I think it should stay up for at least 30mins to count (when someone sees it they should screenshot it 30mins apart)
@Tomoffer I think it can be both? It is helpful information to me to know how likely prediction markets are to be present in community notes and what growth implication that may have for us. It's also helpful to know how much time I should invest into trying to make this happen. And if it does incentivise people to make CNs with manifold links that is fantastic!