If AGI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it create SCP-style cognitohazards or antimemes within a year?
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Jan 1
18%
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Does not include currently understood phenomena like subliminal messages. Includes deliberate creation by AGI, or accidental release by LLMs or programs such as DALL-E. Question will resolve on or about December 31, 2024, once consensus exceeds 99%, or, y'know, whenever I feel like it.

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Highly recommend adding the 2024 timescale to the title, that completely changes the odds

Alternative market title you could edit this to since there aren't already a bunch of traders:

If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it create lethal SCP-style cognitohazards within a year?