A single year global average temperature is not really a good measure of global warming. An average of a few years or even 30 years might be better but I guess this is being settled on a single year. If that is the way it is being settled then the question really ought to just be 'how warm will 2024 be?'. Things other than global warming can affect 2024 average temperature.

These are weather bets. Keep betting in them for 20 years like I have, and they're climate bets. For example, I used to buy the nasa monthly anomaly at Intrade to be over 0.75 for pennies every month. These days, that would be considered cold.

Warmest on record on this scale is 1.02

The linked data (including the current 0.85 °C) is relative to 1951-1980, not relative to 1880, so it's worth clarifying which baseline will be used for this question.

@StevenK Ah sorry, will be using the link.

@SneakySly

I think you should edit this:

How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2024 be than the average global temperature in 1880?

to say something different, because the link is not relative to 1880.

@StevenK Edited to specify I am just straight up going off of the link.