Will pure LK-99 turn out to be significantly toxic to humans?
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Jan 1
12%
chance

If synthesized in large enough quantities, will a person be able to poke it and not get significantly injured, sick, develop cancer, etc.

Think a 1 gram 99.9% pure hunk of the stuff.

Resolves YES if you poke it and die.

Resolves NO if you poke it and don't die.

We're talking the product that comes out of the production process, not the applied product it's used in, like Nitroglycerin vs Dynamite.

This market will resolve whether or not LK-99 turns out to be a superconductor.

If pure LK-99 does turn out to be highy toxic, but is then stabilized to be made safe for humans by a second production method afterwards (additives), this will still resolve YES.

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@Sodra Can you resolve this market with proof?

predicts YES

@SirCryptomind i have no proof of either option. I don't see anything concrete about it online either. Does it resolve N/A? 12%?

Death is a high bar. It's lead, so it's almost definitely toxic and they'll want to keep it away from human contact. But lead toxicity is subtle and causes things like crime decades later, not so much death.