The managing counsel at Open Philanthropy has recently written the following as part of a comment on her post about the legal risks of clawbacks (https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/o8B9kCkwteSqZg9zc/thoughts-on-legal-concerns-surrounding-the-ftx-situation?commentId=FKQpFSgzsknhTryud):

“There seems to be some confusion around the following sentence: “Essentially, if you received money from an FTX entity in the debtor group anytime on or after approximately August 11, 2022, the bankruptcy process will probably ask you, at some point, to pay all or part of that money back.” 

…When I say “the bankruptcy process will probably ask you, at some point, to pay all or part of that money back” I mean, you are at least likely to receive a demand letter from the lawyers representing the debtor group. It costs next to nothing for the lawyers to send out demand letters, so a small grant amount isn’t necessarily protective against receiving a letter like that.  

…Keep in mind, this is probably years in the future; a lot can happen in the bankruptcy case (and in the world) between now and then.”

Based on the quote above, it sounds like people who received money from a group in the debtor group will be “likely to receive a demand letter from the lawyers representing the debtor group.” My question is: how likely is the “likely” in that sentence? To put it more concretely: conditional on having received grant money (on or after approximately August 11, 2022) from a group that is in the debtor group as part of the FTX bankruptcy proceedings, will one or more grant or regrant recipients be asked to pay all or part of their grant money back? 

This resolves to yes if, by the resolution date (June 27, 2025), we can verify that one or more grant or regrant recipients who received money from a group in the debtor group receives a demand letter from the lawyers representing that debtor group, asking to pay all or part of the grant money back.

This resolves to N/A if, by the resolution date, we find that there were NO grant recipients we could identify who received grant money (on or after approximately August 11, 2022) from a group that is in the debtor group as part of the FTX bankruptcy proceedings.

This resolves to no if, by the resolution date, we can verify that one or more grant or regrant recipients had received grant money (on or after approximately August 11, 2022) from a group in the debtor group, and if they report not having received a demand letter (asking to pay all or part of the grant money back) from the lawyers representing that debtor group.

Related markets (though note that none of these focus specifically on grants received from an entity that’s definitely in the debtor group): 

https://manifold.markets/SpencerGreenberg/will-projects-which-received-grants

https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-5-of-an-ftx-grant-be-clawed-ba

https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-there-be-more-than-5-accounts

Close date updated to 2023-06-27 7:59 pm

Close date updated to 2025-06-27 7:59 pm