Introduction:

This market aims to predict the number of active parameters in the largest version of the upcoming Llama 3 model. As AI models grow increasingly complex, understanding their size in terms of parameters offers insight into their potential capabilities and computational requirements.

Resolution Criterion:

The market will resolve based on the number of active parameters in the largest Llama 3 model. Since I never figure out how to make a market to resolve to a number, the resolution will be converted to a percentage using the formula: 1/(1+ 100B/number_of_parameters ). This formula ensures a resolution within the constraints of percentage-based outcomes, providing a fair and balanced approach to prediction.

Parameter Conversion Table:

The resolution percentages corresponding to different parameter sizes (in billions) are as follows:

- 7B: 6.54%

- 13B: 11.50%

- 34B: 25.37%

- 70B: 41.18%

- 100B: 50.00%

- 140B: 58.33%

- 200B: 66.67%

- 300B: 75.00%

- 500B: 83.33%

- 1T: 90.91%

This table will guide participants in understanding how different parameter sizes will translate into the market's resolution percentage. Participants are encouraged to consider current trends in AI model development when making their predictions.