I ran markets (see below) that closed on 1/14 to capture Manifold predictions vs those that Matt Yglesias made. I will track and update as those markets resolve. If Manifold has a better (lower) Brier score at the end of the year, this resolves "YES", if Matt Yglesias performs better then this resolves "NO". I missed a couple of questions, so they have been skipped over and won't count of either sides Brier score.
@Shump also has a similar market (that manually noted the question percentage on 1/14 instead of closing):
/Shump/will-manifold-outperform-matthew-yg
Markets that are included:
/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-8bfb98574714
/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-266b7c2aa162
/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-preds-vs-mani
/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-a24b9014b67a
/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-0994fc1d699e
/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-ac337f7734b3
/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-47298b074b97
/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-97d55af70294
/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-8b251cd5bc4f
/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-ba76519d45af
/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-fd46bbc32368
/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-95db16a729f4
/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-067357ab53fd
/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-ad74302ba5d6
/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-4370c0740718
/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-a490a278e242
/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-ea8ffb76804f
/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-ad7891475f27
/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-8584a119051
/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-f855cd3ce262
/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-7bb6a3d7da13
/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-2beb38c759ad
/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-febcd1471c20
/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-600cdfbe56c3
/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-c61a3d273601
/Shump/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-a
/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-0555d8210285
/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-8b8700148e14
/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-224f6a599675
/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-a6f929156715
/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-a50544dfe80a
/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-e381533ea45d
/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-9a1cfa16e036
/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-b081b56f0485
/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-204ef9f81ea7
1,000
1.00