Will the world be hotter on average by one degree in 2 years?
Mini
11
Ṁ2323
Dec 31
8%
chance

Compared to the present day, 6th of March 2024

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Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00
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degree F? degree C?
Annual average? or a monthly average? or what length?

(not that we will get close to either 1C or 1F in 2 years. 0.4C in 2 years 2022 - 2024 but I doubt that rate will continue it is more normally like 0.2C per decade. If monthly, then can get a bit more e.g. March 2014 to March 2016 assisted by super El Nino 0.78 to 1.35 is 0.57C which is just over 1F but probability of super El Nino occurring in time for March 2026 is slim. 2024 start time looks like it was above trend so need to be really/impossibly high in 2026.)
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

opened a Ṁ100 NO at 20% order

2 degrees warmer than today would be well beyond the most pessimistic IPCC projections for 2050, never mind two years from now.

https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/climate-change-impacts/predictions-future-global-climate

@TomozeiGeorgeAlexandru compared to now? or compared to the days of Old

@Bayesian compared to today 06.03.2024

bought Ṁ100 NO

@TomozeiGeorgeAlexandru thanks! I'm assuming this is worldwide, according to some widely accepted source