Will AOH1996 be FDA approved before 2040? | Manifold

Will AOH1996 be FDA approved before 2040?

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2040

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This market concerns AOH1996, a cancer therapeutic reported in this paper. See also this Wikipedia page. As of 2023-08-02, AOH1996 is in Phase I clinical trials for the treatment of solid tumors.

This market resolves YES if AOH1996 gets FDA approval for use in humans at any time before 2040. This includes fast track, breakthrough therapy, accelerated approval, and priority review, as well as the normal approval pathway. It also includes any new approval pathways the FDA may develop prior to 2040. AOH1996 may be approved as a mono- or combination therapy.

I will not bet in this market.

At the time of writing, I am aware only of this other AOH1996 market. I created this market to additionally capture the long tail of less glamorous outcomes, including slow approval, approval for only small disease area, and approval as a combination therapy.

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Some doubts here: https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-study-on-use-of-small-molecule-ligand-aoh1996-for-inhibiting-tumour-growth-in-animals

This may be too high. Based on here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6226120/#:~:text=The%20observed%20success%20rates%20of,(NDA%2FBLA)%20phase

The cumulative probability seems closer to 18%-22%.

the deadline of 2040 creates an additional pressure for this to resolve as no.

Edit: probably not. Doesn’t seem like 15+ years is much of a restriction.

I'm excited about this compound but this seems crazy high given the phase I to approval prior (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6409418/).

A related market for the success of the ongoing Phase I trial.

https://manifold.markets/PanosFilianos/will-aoh1996-succeed-in-phase-i-tri

Will AOH1996 succeed in Phase I trial?

50% chance. This market concerns AOH1996, a cancer therapeutic reported in this paper. It is currently in Phase I trial. This market resolves to YES, if a Phase II trial is submitted and starts for any type of cancer.

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Related questions

Will AOH1996 get FDA acceleration?

Will AOH1996 advance past Phase II trials by the end of 2027?

Will a drug to be used by most healthy adults be approved by 2043 year end?

Will anti-aging treatments developed, approved and available for public usage by 2040?

When will the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 be approved by the FDA?

Will AOH1996 succeed in Phase I trial?

Will a drug that didn't go through human clinical trials be approved by 2034?

The FDA will approve an AI developed cure before the end of the decade (<2030) for a previously incurable major illness.

Will Ozempic / semaglutide be FDA-approved for Alzheimer's before 2030?

Will a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA by 2030?

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