The Ministry for the Future Predictions: Will a Heatwave Kill More Than a Million in India by 2040?
Mini
9
Ṁ462
2040
10%
chance

Based on the horrifying open for The Ministry for the Future by Kim Stanley Robinson. Resolves Yes if a credible outlet reports >1 million Indian deaths from heat exhaustion in a single heatwave.

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Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00
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Made a slightly broader version of this: