Will a fully functional brain-computer interface be commercially available by 2030?
➕
Plus
36
Ṁ1305
2030
30%
chance

The basic bar I'll use for functional interface is the ability to type with your thoughts.

Commerically available will mean available to the general public, and marketed for sale. Marketed for sale means the device is being brokered for the explicit purpose of making profit: if a billionaire pays someone a lot of money to build them their own personal interface it does not count. It does not need to be affordable. If anyone with enough money can buy one, this resolves as Y.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00


Sort by:
1y

It sounds like there's way too many obstacles that need to be overcome to make it safe enough to be worth it for an average person in only 7 years.

On the other hand, I could see it being available commercially for impaired people. How would the market resolve in that case?

@AntonBogun In the case where it's prohibitively expensive, but still commercially available for people with impairments, I would resolve this to Y. This is part of a series of chat-gpt generated markets, and I'm trying to keep the resolution criteria closely aligned with the wording of the question. Since it doesn't stipulate "commerically available and affordable" I'll leave that requirement out.

I know there are already some basic computer-brain interfaces making the rounds through research institutions, so I'll update the market criteria to specify what constitutes commercially available.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.